Tesla announced Q3 numbers after the bell Oct 18th.
The market not impressed and Musk makes long rambling answers to question on the earning call Q&A.
Highlights:
Revenue
Total revenue grew 9% YoY in Q3 to $23.4B. YoY, revenue was impacted by the following items:
+ growth in vehicle deliveries
+ growth in other parts of the business
– reduced average selling price (ASP) YoY (excluding FX impact)
Profitability
Our operating income decreased YoY to $1.8B in Q3, resulting in a 7.6% operating margin. YoY, operating income was
primarily impacted by the following items:
– reduced ASP due to pricing and mix
– increase in operating expenses driven by Cybertruck, AI and other R&D projects
– cost of production ramp and idle cost related to factory upgrades
– negative FX impact
+ growth in vehicle deliveries (despite the margin headwind from underutilization from new factories)
+ lower cost per vehicle and IRA credit benefit
+ gross profit growth in Energy Generation and Storage as well as Services and Other
+ growth in regulatory credit sales
Cash
Quarter-end cash, cash equivalents and investments increased sequentially by $3.0B to $26.1B in Q3, driven by financing
activities of $2.3B and free cash flow of $0.8B.
Production Q3 and YoY change
Model S/X production 13,688 -31%
Model 3/Y production 416,800 20%
Total production 430,488 18%
Total Deliveries: 435,059 cars – 27% YoY growth.
Storage deployed in MWh
Q3 deployments: 3,980 representing 90% YoY growth.
Capacity
During the quarter we brought down several production lines for upgrades at
various factories, which led to a sequential decline in production volumes. We made
further progress smoothing out the delivery rate across the quarter, with September
accounting for ~40% of Q3 deliveries this year, compared to September accounting
for ~65% of Q3 deliveries in 2022.
US: California, Nevada and Texas
At Gigafactory Texas, we began pilot production of the Cybertruck, which remains
on track for initial deliveries this year. We are expecting the Model Y production rate
in Texas to grow very gradually from its current level as we ramp additional supply
chain needs in a cost-efficient manner. Production of our higher density 4680 cell is
progressing as planned, and we continue building capacity for cathode production
and lithium refining in the U.S.
China: Shanghai
Other than scheduled downtime in Q3, our Shanghai factory has been successfully
running near full capacity for several quarters, and we do not expect a meaningful
increase in weekly production run rate. Giga Shanghai remains our main export hub.
Europe: Berlin-Brandenburg
Model Y remained the best-selling vehicle of any kind in Europe year-to-date (based
on the latest available data as of August). Similar to Texas, further production ramp
of Model Y will be gradual.
Market Share
With around 3% market share the comply has plenty of room to grow.
Batteries
Company is making good progress on the transition to larger, higher density batteries for both cars and storage.
Energy storage deployments increased by 90% YoY in Q3 to 4.0 GWh, our highest
quarterly deployment ever. Continued growth in deployments was driven by the
ongoing ramp of our Megafactory in Lathrop, CA toward full capacity of 40 GWh with
the phase two expansion. Production rate improved further sequentially in Q3.
Outlook
We are planning to grow production as quickly as possible in alignment with the 50% CAGR target we began guiding to
in early 2021. In some years we may grow faster and some we may grow slower, depending on a number of factors. For
2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year.
During the last 4 quarters Tesla delivered 1,729,000 cars.
Q4 405,278
Q1 422,875
Q2 466,140
Q3 435,059
Total: 1,729,000
To grow sales at 50% would be a huge undertaking even allowing for Cybertruck introduction.
Cybertruck
On the earnings Elon Musk warned of difficulties in ramping up production of the much-awaited Cybertruck electric pickup truck and announced that deliveries would begin on Nov. 30.
The company has said it had the capacity to make more than 125,000 Cybertrucks annually, with Musk adding there was the potential for that to lift to 250,000 in 2025.
More than 1 million people had reserved the truck, he said, which involves placing a small deposit.
All data from Tesla IR and current release: See Tesla Investors